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An meiner Schule gab es Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung erst in Klasse 11, und dann vor allem mit Hinblick aufs Glücksspiel. Wenn man sich die aktuellen Ereignisse ansieht, würde es vielleicht Sinn machen, zumindest die Grundlagen der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung vorzuziehen und unter dem Vorzeichen der Risikominimierung zu behandeln. Das ist eine Kernkompetenz, die zu vielen Menschen zu fehlen scheint.

I did a rough head count: that’s around 200 people, most of them without masks, without any distance rules, hugging, shaking hands (after wiping their nose of course). How ignorant and irresponsible can people entrusted with power possibly be?

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Hochzeitsgesellschaft sehen in 2019: Wie schön! Wo ist die Braut?

Hochzeitsgesellschaft sehen in 2020: Die stehen doch viel zu nah aneinander! Ich will nicht, dass die Gegend hier zu einem neuen Hotspot wird!

Nun hat die Stadt Köln mit dem NRW-Portal bei den Infektionen gleichgezogen – es werden wohl tatsächlich dieselben Zahlen, bloß etwas später veröffentlicht.

Das NRW-Portal zeigt aber tatsächlich auch all die relevanten Graphen an, die ich bisher selber erstellen musste. Unten die wenig erfreuliche Entwicklung für Köln.

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Allerdings sind die Zahlen hier allgemein etwas höher, was nicht so leicht zu erklären ist. Es werden hier auch mehr Tote gezählt als in den Infos der Stadt. Vielleicht sind die Zahlen hier aktueller?

Der große Unterschied ist aber bei den aktiven Infektionen – während NRW diese auf 1300 schätzt, geht Köln von 450 aus. Man merkt, dass Köln bis Mai dasselbe System zur Schätzung verwendet hat, anschließend aber zu einem anderen und nicht nachvollziehbaren gewechselt hat.

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Habe festgestellt, dass NRW unter lzg.nrw.de/inf_schutz/corona_m die Daten für alle Gemeinden bereitstellt. Man kann beispielsweise separat Köln auswählen – dann hat man theoretisch dieselben Daten, die auch die Stadt selber unter stadt-koeln.de/artikel/69443/i veröffentlicht. Nur dass die Daten eben nicht dieselben sind.

Bei der Anzahl der Infektionen spielt wohl eine Rolle, dass in NRW-Zahlen Meldungen auch nachträglich noch für das richtige Datum eingetragen werden.

Consequently, there is one thing that fascists are afraid of: that people side with the groups they are trying to exclude. That people say: “Yes, they are not like us but they are still humans and we won’t let anybody harm them.” That’s what they are trying to prevent. 13/13

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And then they will explore the boundaries of what the general population will let them do. If they are allowed to murder people they dislike, they will absolutely do that. But if not – they will continue to spread lies until the population is ready to let them do anything. 12/13

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So how does fascism really work? It makes sure that regular people will accept it, by telling them a convenient set of lies. It will also always exclude some groups, be it the Jews, the Black or LGBT. And it will do everything to dehumanize these groups. 11/13

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It took nine years, and it was in the middle of a bloody war, that fascists thought it was acceptable to start murdering Jews. And even then, none of the death camps were built in Germany. Because people might get upset if they see up close what’s going on. 10/13

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And with most people, this strategy worked. So when fascists decided to relocate the Jews, there were few protests from the general population. Still, the fascists had to soothe them: “It’s for their own good, they will be better off among themselves.” 9/13

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They were telling people how Jews didn’t deserve better. They were describing Jews as bugs, as a pest, everything but humans. They were broadcasting this image on all media to make sure it sinks in. Because regular people don’t stand up for those they don’t consider people. 8/13

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And when fascists, using various tricks, got to power, they did not outright start murder Jews. No, there were still enough people who would oppose them if they did. Instead, they started by oppressing Jews: removing them from jobs, disallowing various activities and more. 7/13

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And the fascists said: “We are proud to be Germans. After a millennium of glorious history. Germany might be down right now (and we know who to blame), but we’ll retake our rightful place.” And some people liked that, because people like being part of something bigger. 6/13

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The fascists also said: “We are here to protect traditional values. And we’ll fight those who try to destroy them!” And some people liked that, because in times of crisis and radical changes, clinging on to traditional values can be very appealing and provide stability. 5/13

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It’s not because the argumentation was so convincing, it was actually pretty ridiculous. But these people already disliked and distrusted Jews because Jews were different, not like them. So the message resonated well with them, they *wanted* to believe it. And so they did. 4/13

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When fascists came to Germany for the first time they didn’t say: “Hey, we will murder millions of people!” Instead they said: “We are socialists, we are here for the poor people. And we know who is responsible for their misery: the Jews.” And some people sided them. 3/13

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And you were probably left thinking that fascists could only rise to power in a mystic faraway country where people appreciate soulless monsters, definitely not the country you live in that would immediately reject such creatures.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things work. 2/13

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If everything you know about fascism comes from your school education, you probably walked away with the impression that fascists are soulless monsters that you could recognize by the murderous look in their eyes – not at all like the people you see around you. 1/13

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Andererseits wird der korrekte Seitenabstand von 1,5 Metern beim Überholen meist eingehalten – dieser ist für die Überholgeschwindigkeit größtenteils irrelevant. Das ist aber nur meine Erfahrung, andere Fahrradfahrer:innen klagen durchaus über solche Überholmanöver. Vermutlich spielt hier eher die Breite der Straße eine Rolle und nicht die Geschwindigkeit.

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