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#prediction

35 posts8 participants0 posts today
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-21% in an hour 📉 Nintendo increases recommend US retail price of Switch 2 above the announced $449.99 before launch
manifold.markets/AlexanderTheG #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldNintendo increases recommend US retail price of Switch 2 above the announced $449.99 before launch50% chance. This market resolves YES if Nintendo officially announces an increase to the recommended US retail price (let's say due to US tariffs) of the Nintendo Switch 2 above the currently announced $449.99 before its launch on June 5th, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the launch is delayed, I'll delay resolution with it. Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Clarification: Only an announcement indicating an increase in the actual launch price (the price at launch) will count as a YES resolution. Announcements that mention a future price change after launch (or that do not specify the launch price) must be treated as NO. If an announcement states the game will launch at a higher price (e.g., $500) and is later reversed to the originally announced price before launch, it will still resolve as YES. Announcements dated beyond the market close (unless the launch is delayed) do not count.
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-23% in a day 📉 Will nothing happen before May? (read description)
manifold.markets/SemioticRival #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill nothing happen before May? (read description)52% chance. If none of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to Yes. If any of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to no. Copied from the Polymarket and should resolve the same in >99% of circumstances. https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may -Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire (announcement suffices) -Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea -Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense -Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey -Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal (announcement suffices) For the sake of this market, a ceasefire must pertain to all theaters of fighting between the two parties.
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+39% in a week 📈 Manifest 2025 Prop Bets There is an orgy
manifold.markets/Joshua/manife #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldManifest 2025 Prop BetsManifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp. Add anything that you think would be Fun to predict, might or might not happen Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count) Respects people's privacy I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage. Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases. Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Orgy Resolution Criteria: Minimum of 5 participants is required for an event to qualify as an orgy.
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-24% in a day 📉 Trump reduces tariff on Israel to 0% by May?
manifold.markets/Shai/trump-re #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldTrump reduces tariff on Israel to 0% by May?40% chance. Context: Israel removed all tariffs on America prior to Liberation Day and still got a 17% tariff Netanyahu (Israeli prime minister) met with Trump on the 7th of April Israel has a 18% VAT (Trump dislikes VATs, and has previously said that he'll tariff countries that charge them) Resolves YES if the tariff rate for Israel is 0% on May 1st: Product/category specific tariffs do not count, only a general tariff on Israel The new rate must be implemented, not just announced Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (creator comment): A change to 0% during May 1st in will count as YES
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-40% in a week 📉 When will the hostilities in Gaza end? October 2025
manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWhen will the hostilities in Gaza end?The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following conditions is fulfilled: A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days. Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza. The state of Israel ceases to exist. In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later. I do not bet on my own questions.
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-55% in a day 📉 S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day?
manifold.markets/NeoMalthusian #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldS&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day?17% chance. This market will resolve as YES if the S&P 500 index declines by more than 8% from its closing value on March 31, 2025, to its closing value on April 30, 2025, based on official data from a credible financial source (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, or the New York Stock Exchange). The percentage change will be calculated as follows: - Starting value: S&P 500 closing value on March 31, 2025 - Ending value: S&P 500 closing value on April 30, 2025 - Percentage drop = [(Starting value - Ending value) / Starting value] × 100 If the calculated drop exceeds 8.00%, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the exact closing values are disputed or unavailable, the resolution will rely on the consensus of major financial reporting outlets.
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-45% in a day 📉 During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? all loans paid back on time
manifold.markets/Tumbles/durin #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldDuring which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?Resolves to "all loans paid back on time" if Tumbles does not owe anybody any mana. You can see how much mana Tumbles currently owes here: @/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba If Tumbles is late to pay off a loan he accepted before he is debt free, this market resolves to the month during which it occurred. Note that each monthly option does not specify a particular year. Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸 Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: The market resolves to the month the loan was originally due, even if the payment is made late.
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+32% in a week 📈 Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
manifold.markets/Tumbles/will- #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?47% chance. Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance. @Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months. I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00). May 4th 2025 - Ṁ22,000 @bens June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @nikki June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @Bayesian June 8th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @10thOfficial June 8th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @zsig June 8th 2025 - Ṁ80,000 @Gen June 8th 2025 - Ṁ6,000 @Vortex June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @jcb June 8th 2025 - Ṁ100,000 @Tripping June 8th 2025 - Ṁ84,138 @Quillist June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @A June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @spiderduckpig June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,674 @Robincvgr June 8th 2025 - Ṁ3,392 @mana July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TimothyJohnson5c16 July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk October 31st 2025 Ṁ70,000 @UniversalFC October 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,000 @Vortex October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam Total: Ṁ1,023,504 Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ981,800 (short term loans not included) Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
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-30% in a day 📉 Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? Having a pet cow
manifold.markets/Bayesian/left #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldLeft-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more. Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market, @/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees (edit may 29: currently not true, but I believe it is being implemented currently). I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary. As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote. If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system. Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. The market will close every every week; See the close date to know on what day. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted. If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. Some guidlines: I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results. I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do. See: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/would-you-rather-manifold-chooses)Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Options will only be resolved if they have at least 10 traders total and there is a significant difference in yes/no traders. This will be tested for a few weeks.
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+21% in a day 📈 Will there be an anti-Trump protest march with at least 1m reported total participants in the US before 1st June 2025?
manifold.markets/dlin007/will- #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill there be an anti-Trump protest march with at least 1m reported total participants in the US before 1st June 2025?74% chance. Has to happen in a single day. Similar to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women's_March which reported between 3,267,134 and 5,246,670 total participants in the US. I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible media sources and/or wikipedia. Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Anti-Trump Protest Definition Clarification A protest does not need to be solely a demonstration against the person of Donald Trump. It is sufficient if it is motivated by his policy positions, rhetoric, or their perceived impact. For example, the Women's March qualifies as an anti-Trump protest because it was prompted by Trump’s policy positions and rhetoric. Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Eligible Protest Clarification: Any type of protest qualifies: The event does not need to be a march; any protest is sufficient as long as it is motivated by Trump’s policy positions, rhetoric, or their perceived impact. Example Provided: The Women’s March is given solely as an example of a protest that would qualify
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-23% in an hour 📉 White Lotus Season 3 [Mega independent] We will see Frank in S4 of White Lotus
manifold.markets/HenriThunberg #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWhite Lotus Season 3 [Mega independent]What will happen in the third season of the HBO series White Lotus? (To start betting on season 4 already, use this market.) Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important criteria for resolution: The event must involve physical interaction (not merely a kiss) with an immediate family member The interaction must be a result of sexual attraction Update 2025-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full Frontal Male Nudity Clarification The outcome is determined by whether the male genital is shown in its entirety. The presence or absence of outer thighs is not relevant. Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Adultery Clarification: Relationship Inclusion: Acts of adultery qualify if the individuals are in a relationship, not only in a legal marriage. Examples: This clarification explicitly covers cases involving characters such as Jaclyn, Chloe, Chelsea, and their respective male counterparts. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Electronics Theft Clarification: The act must be committed in the spirit of stealing/breaking in (i.e. it is not enough if the subject only hides the act from their family). If a family member is clearly present (as with Pam) during the act, it does not satisfy the intended criteria for covert removal. Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Handjob Clarification: A handjob does not qualify as intercourse. Only full sexual intercourse is considered toward meeting the outcome criteria. Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Named Characters Clarification: Named characters are those whose names are mentioned explicitly during dialogue or who are central to the story. Peripheral characters (e.g., bodyguards) do not count unless their names are referenced in the narrative.
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-34% in an hour 📉 When will an animal get de-extinct for the first time? Before 2026
manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWhen will an animal get de-extinct for the first time?With the invention of cloning and CRISPR, there have been a number of proposals to bring back some of the animals that got extinct recently enough that we have their full genomes, like Woolly Mammoth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-extinction When will de-extinction be done successfully for the first time? For this market to resolve positively, at least one individual animal of an extinct species has to be brought to life. The animal should live to the biological age of at least 1 month. The animal could be produced by cloning, gene splicing or other means, but it has to be considered belonging to the extinct species. Genetically modifying an elephant to grow hair is not enough. I do not bet on my own questions.
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