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#predictive

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Public
William Smith

I'll go ahead and say it. Predictive typing is as advanced as just throwing spaghetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.

The typo in "hour” is mine. The suggestion to complete the sentence with "horseshoe” is Microsoft Outlook’s.

Even worse, I have "Check spelling as you type” and “Check grammar as you type" both turned on.

Screen shot of one sentence I was composing in Microsoft Outlook. “I’d like to meet with your for about an horseshoe” I started mistyping “hour” as “hor”, but Outlook’s predictive typing suggested “horseshoe”.
#computers#grammar#predictive
Public
💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Unlocking Arkansas’s Hidden Treasures – USGS Uses Machine Learning To Show Large Lithium Potential In The Smackover Formation
--
usgs.gov/news/national-news-re <-- shared technical article
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doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp8149 <-- shared paper
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usgs.gov/tools/us-geological-s <-- link to the USGS Produced Waters Database
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #sampling #water #naturalresources #economicvalue #lithium #watertesting #waterquality #machinelearning #AI #predictive #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #Arkansas #commercial #study #resource #research #batteries #technology #brines #SmackoverFormation #oilandgas #commodity #extraction #mining #salt #mineral #hydrocarbon #geology #geologic #estimation
@USGS

photo - a feed pump at lithium mine in Atacama Desert, Chile
screen shot - web map - USGS Produced Waters Database
maps - predicted lithium concentrations and uncertainty, Smackover Formation, Arkansas
maps - observed lithium concentrations in brines in the Gulf Coast region, USA
Public
Dr. Jennifer

New article just came out :
"Modelling the Dynamics of Outbreak Species: The Case of Ditrupa arietina (O.F. Müller), Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean Sea"

mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/2/350

Thanks to an impressive 10 yr observation series collected by one of our co-authors (F. Charles) @CNRS, the article shows what great data and a little mathematical modelling can do for prediction in marine ecology.

#metapopulation #marinebiology #outbreak #historicalecology #modelling
#predictive #ecology

MDPIModelling the Dynamics of Outbreak Species: The Case of Ditrupa arietina (O.F. Müller), Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean SeaAn outbreak species exhibits extreme, rapid population fluctuations that can be qualified as discrete events within a continuous dynamic. When outbreaks occur they may appear novel and disconcerting because the limiting factors of their dynamics are not readily identifiable. We present the first population hybrid dynamic model that combines continuous and discrete processes, designed to simulate marine species outbreaks. The deterministic framework was tested using the case of an unexploited benthic invertebrate species: the small, serpulid polychaete Ditrupa arietina. This species is distributed throughout the northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea; it has a life cycle characterised by a pelagic dispersive larval stage, while juveniles and adults are sedentary. Sporadic reports of extremely high, variable densities (from <10 to >10,000 ind.m−2) have attracted attention from marine ecologists for a century. However, except for one decade-long field study from the Bay of Banyuls (France, Gulf of Lions, Mediterranean Sea), observations are sparse. Minimal formulations quantified the processes governing the population dynamics. Local population continuous dynamics were simulated from a size-structured model with a null immigration–emigration flux balance. The mathematical properties, based on the derived hybrid model, demonstrated the possibilities of reaching an equilibrium for the population using a single number of recruits per reproducer. Two extrapolations were made: (1) local population dynamics were simulated over 180 years using North Atlantic Oscillation indices to force recruitment variability and (2) steady-state population densities over the Gulf of Lions were calculated from a connectivity matrix in a metapopulation. The dynamics reach a macroscopic stability in both extrapolations, despite the absence of density regulating mechanisms. This ensures the persistence of D. arietina, even when strong, irregular oscillations characteristic of an outbreak species are observed. The hybrid model suggests that a macroscopic equilibrium for a population with variable recruitment conditions can only be characterised for time periods which contain several outbreak occurrences distributed over a regional scale.
Continued thread
Public
Eric Maugendre

The AI Act will not ban the bulk of biometric mass surveillance #BMS. "Restrictions on the use of live and retrospective facial recognition in the AI Act will be minimal, and will not apply to private companies or administrative authorities":
reclaimyourface.eu/eu-ai-act-w @dataGovernance @data @ai @eu

Reclaim Your Face · EU AI Act will fail commitment to ban biometric mass surveillance (Deutsche Version unten) - Reclaim Your FaceOn 8 December 2023, EU lawmakers celebrated reaching a deal on the long-awaited Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act. Lead Parliamentarians reassured their colleagues that they had preserved strong protections for human rights, including ruling out biometric mass surveillance (BMS). Yet despite the lawmakers’ bravado, the AI Act will not ban the vast majority of dangerous BMS […]
#ethicalAI#aiEthics#bigTech
Public
Ellen Timmer

The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (#ETIAS) will profile visa- exempt third-country nationals using a screening rules #algorithm to make automated #predictive #riskassessments

brill.com/view/journals/emil/2

Brill · Rule of Law Challenges of ‘Algorithmic Discretion’ & Automation in EU Border ControlAbstract The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) will profile visa- exempt third-country nationals using a screening rules algorithm to make automated predictive risk assessments. By using the screening rules algorithm as a case study, this article analyses if the ETIAS Regulation, and the legal safeguards it establishes for the decision-making process, comply with formal and substantive legality requirements as defined by the Venice Commission and the Court of Justice of the European Union. Three legality challenges are identified: [1] The regulatory design of ETIAS raises issues in relation to the foreseeability, clarity and accessibility of law, as well as insufficient limits to discretion. [2] The ETIAS screening rules algorithm represents a development towards a new form of arbitrariness through ‘algorithmic discretion’. [3] The safeguard of manual (human) processing in case of a ‘hit’ is not a panacea for the identified legality challenges.
Replied in thread
Public
Lizly

#writever #Predictive

- Et cette nana alors ?
- Oh, là, je la vois plus !
- Mais ?! Elle était marrante, charismatique, ça se passait bien, non ?
- Ça oui, elle était aussi sensible, attentionnée, mais beaucoup trop prédictive.
- C'est-à-dire dire ?
- Elle devine la météo, termine les phrases de tout le monde, comprend la fin des films dès la 1ère demi-heure, c'est chiant.
- Ah... Ouais, je comprends...

#microfiction
Public
Research Network Digi-Oek.ch

[en] ‘Bias in, bias out’: risk assessment tool to make decisions

"... intrinsic part of the UK justice system since 2001 ... began taking over certain tasks from probation officers."

"... expressed concerns that the system might be a form of social engineering"

"... an all too common and mistaken assumption ... algorithms can provide a prediction about the specific person"

theconversation.com/a-black-bo

The ConversationA 'black box' AI system has been influencing criminal justice decisions for over two decades – it's time to open it up‘I no longer exist, I have become a construct of their imagination. It is the ultimate act of dehumanisation.’
#bias#convict#socialengineering
Public
Research Network Digi-Oek.ch

Paper Prof , :
The Society: and the Problems of the

"The higher the stakes of decisions on people’s lives, the more rigorously predictions must be scrutinized."

"... ... recognized as a pseudo-science, similar claims are resurfacing ... Harrisburg University claimed ... software capable of predicting whether someone is likely going to be a ."

teachprivacy.com/the-predictio

TeachPrivacyThe Prediction Society: Algorithms and the Problems of Forecasting the Future - TeachPrivacyI am excited to share my new paper draft with Hideyuki (“Yuki”) Matsumi, The Prediction Society: Algorithms and the Problems of Forecasting the Future.  The paper is available for free on SSRN. Yuki is currently pursuing a PhD at Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Yuki began his career as a technologist, then turned to law, where he […]
#predictive
Replied in thread
Public
Resistor McResistanceFace

@jns @requiem

"AI is to now what E-mail was to back then." - Spam

The only standard that exists within the scope of AI is how fast and cheaply it can either sell you, entertain you or replace you.

It doesn't even have to be good or accurate, sorry half-assed AI will be just fine to met quarterly goals.

Law enforcement is already playing with #predictive policing now with AI they can get that warrant faster than a Texas governor

Public
Chuck Darwin

Nationwide protests against anti-Black racism and police violence have sparked demands and reckonings in several corners of higher education and academe.

The latest to join the fray is the discipline of #mathematics.

Ten mathematicians from eight universities and one company wrote an open letter calling for mathematicians to cease collaborating with police departments. The letter also urges math scholars to publicly audit influential algorithms and to embed learning outcomes related to #ethics in #data #science curriculums.

"It's a political belief, that collaborating with police in any capacity contributes to white supremacist violence and oppression," said #Tarik #Aougab, a math professor at Haverford College and one of the letter writers, speaking personally on his motivations. "Really any collaboration between mathematics, which is something that I love and that I find extremely beautiful, and the institution of policing shouldn't happen."

The letter has 1,500 verified signatures from mathematicians, Aougab said, although that number is not limited to academic mathematicians. The letter has been submitted to and accepted by the Notices of the American Mathematical Society.

The letter writers take particular aim at "predictive policing," which involves using data and mathematics to predict where crime will happen.

"Many of our colleagues can and do work with police departments to provide modeling and data work," the letter said, noting that in 2016 the Institute for Computational and Experimental Research in Mathematics (#ICERM) at Brown University held a one-week workshop on #predictive #policing.

#PredPol, a major predictive policing company, says that its technology is being used to protect one out of every 33 people in the United States.

Opposition to predictive policing is not new. Academics have raised concerns in recent years about the mathematical theory underlying the technology and its tendency to create self-reinforcing feedback loops ("It is predicting future policing, not future crime," said a 2017 paper on the subject).

insidehighered.com/news/2020/0

www.insidehighered.comMathematicians urge cutting ties with policeOver 1,500 mathematicians have signed a letter urging the community to stop working with police.
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